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Abstract Recently, the first JWST measurement of thermal emission from a rocky exoplanet was reported. The inferred dayside brightness temperature of TRAPPIST-1 b at 15 μ m is consistent with the planet having no atmosphere and therefore no mechanism by which to circulate heat to its nightside. In this Letter, we compare TRAPPIST-1 b's measured secondary eclipse depth to predictions from a suite of self-consistent radiative-convective equilibrium models in order to quantify the maximum atmospheric thickness consistent with the observation. We find that plausible atmospheres (i.e., those that contain at least 100 ppm CO 2 ) with surface pressures greater than 0.3 bar are ruled out at 3 σ , regardless of the choice of background atmosphere, and a Mars-like thin atmosphere with surface pressure 6.5 mbar composed entirely of CO 2 is also ruled out at 3 σ . Thicker atmospheres of up to 10 bar (100 bar) are consistent with the data at 1 σ (3 σ ) only if the atmosphere lacks any strong absorbers across the mid-IR wavelength range—a scenario that we deem unlikely. We additionally model the emission spectra for bare-rock planets of various compositions. We find that a basaltic, metal-rich, and Fe-oxidized surface best matches the measured eclipse depth to within 1 σ , and the best-fit gray albedo is 0.02 ± 0.11. We conclude that planned secondary eclipse observations at 12.8 μ m will serve to validate TRAPPIST-1 b's high observed brightness temperature, but are unlikely to further distinguish among the consistent atmospheric and bare-rock scenarios. 

Abstract It remains to be ascertained whether sub-Neptune exoplanets primarily possess hydrogen-rich atmospheres or whether a population of H₂O-rich water worlds lurks in their midst. Addressing this question requires improved modeling of water-rich exoplanetary atmospheres, both to predict and interpret spectroscopic observations and to serve as upper boundary conditions on interior structure calculations. Here, we present new models of hydrogen-helium-water atmospheres with water abundances ranging from solar to 100% water vapor. We improve upon previous models of high-water-content atmospheres by incorporating updated prescriptions for water self-broadening and a nonideal gas equation of state. Our model grid (https://umd.box.com/v/water-worlds) includes temperature–pressure profiles in radiative-convective equilibrium, along with their associated transmission and thermal emission spectra. We find that our model updates primarily act at high pressures, significantly impacting bottom-of-atmosphere temperatures, with implications for the accuracy of interior structure calculations. Upper-atmosphere conditions and spectroscopic observables are less impacted by our model updates, and we find that, under most conditions, retrieval codes built for hot Jupiters should also perform well on water-rich planets. We additionally quantify the observational degeneracies among both thermal emission and transmission spectra. We recover standard degeneracies with clouds and mean molecular weight for transmission spectra, and we find thermal emission spectra to be more readily distinguishable from one another in the water-poor (i.e., near-solar) regime. 

Abstract Retrieval of exoplanetary atmospheric properties from their transmission spectra commonly assumes that the errors in the data are Gaussian and independent. However, non-Gaussian noise can occur due to instrumental or stellar systematics and the merging of discrete data sets. We investigate the effect of correlated noise and constrain the potential biases incurred in the retrieved posteriors. We simulate multiple noise instances of synthetic data and perform retrievals to obtain statistics of the goodness of retrieval for varying noise models. We find that correlated noise allows for overfitting the spectrum, thereby yielding a better goodness of fit on average but degrading the overall accuracy of retrievals. In particular, correlated noise can manifest as an apparent non-Rayleigh slope in the optical range, leading to an incorrect estimate of cloud/haze parameters. We also find that higher precision causes correlated results to be further off from the input values in terms of estimated errors. Finally, we show that while correlated noise cannot be reliably distinguished with Hubble Space Telescope observations, inferring its presence and strength may be possible with James Webb Space Telescope observations. As such, we emphasize that caution must be taken in analyzing retrieved posteriors and that estimated parameter uncertainties are best understood as lower limits. 

Abstract The spectroscopic characterization of terrestrial exoplanets over a wide spectral range from the near- to the mid-infrared will be made possible for the first time with the JWST. One challenge is that it is not known a priori whether such planets possess optically thick atmospheres or even any atmospheres altogether. However, this challenge also presents an opportunity, the potential to detect the surface of an extrasolar world. This study explores the feasibility of characterizing with the JWST the atmosphere and surface of LHS 3844b, the highest signal-to-noise rocky thermal emission target among planets that are cool enough to have nonmolten surfaces. We model the planetary emission, including the spectral signal of both the atmosphere and surface, and we explore all scenarios that are consistent with the existing Spitzer 4.5 μ m measurement of LHS 3844b from Kreidberg et al. In summary, we find a range of plausible surfaces and atmospheres that are within 3 σ of the observationless reflective metal-rich, iron-oxidized, and basaltic compositions are allowed, and atmospheres are restricted to a maximum thickness of 1 bar, if near-infrared absorbers at ≳100 ppm are included. We further make predictions on the observability of surfaces and atmospheres and find that a small number (∼3) of eclipse observations should suffice to differentiate between surface and atmospheric features. We also perform a Bayesian retrieval analysis on simulated JWST data and find that the surface signal may make it harder to precisely constrain the abundance of atmospheric species and may falsely induce a weak H 2 O detection. 

Abstract JWST has ushered in an era of unprecedented ability to characterize exoplanetary atmospheres. While there are over 5000 confirmed planets, more than 4000 Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) planet candidates are still unconfirmed and many of the best planets for atmospheric characterization may remain to be identified. We present a sample of TESS planets and planet candidates that we identify as “best-in-class” for transmission and emission spectroscopy with JWST. These targets are sorted into bins across equilibrium temperatureT_eqand planetary radiusR_pand are ranked by a transmission and an emission spectroscopy metric (TSM and ESM, respectively) within each bin. We perform cuts for expected signal size and stellar brightness to remove suboptimal targets for JWST. Of the 194 targets in the resulting sample, 103 are unconfirmed TESS planet candidates, also known as TESS Objects of Interest (TOIs). We perform vetting and statistical validation analyses on these 103 targets to determine which are likely planets and which are likely false positives, incorporating ground-based follow-up from the TESS Follow-up Observation Program to aid the vetting and validation process. We statistically validate 18 TOIs, marginally validate 31 TOIs to varying levels of confidence, deem 29 TOIs likely false positives, and leave the dispositions for four TOIs as inconclusive. Twenty-one of the 103 TOIs were confirmed independently over the course of our analysis. We intend for this work to serve as a community resource and motivate formal confirmation and mass measurements of each validated planet. We encourage more detailed analysis of individual targets by the community.